Jonathan Steele

A deadly opportunity

Jonathan Steele — 2006-06-08T19:58:00Z

The success of any insurgency always depends on the degree of its popular support. In a country occupied by foreign troops and where the government is not perceived as independent, the most powerful source of that support is nationalism. The occupiers are the insurgents' best recruiting tool.

These basic truths have never been taken on board sufficiently by the Bush administration or the British government in its dealings with Iraq. Ignoring them was the biggest blunder in the pre-invasion period, when it was falsely assumed the majority of Iraqis would welcome the arrival of western troops. Since the invasion American commanders and politicians have continued to underrate the extent of nationalist resentment and resistance. (...)

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We have no reason to stay in Basra and ought to pull out

Jonathan Steele — 2006-05-19T09:26:12Z

Tony Blair's folly in taking Britain to war in Iraq is blood under the bridge, a blunder that cannot be reversed. But Blair made a second mistake that is less often discussed. He should have withdrawn British troops from southern Iraq as soon as it was clear that they were not serving a useful purpose. Instead, out of the same "strategic" motive of wanting to show George Bush that Britain was Washington's most faithful ally, Blair has kept British forces long after he needed to. He was wrong to send British forces in. He is wrong not to take them out. (...)

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The upstart from the east who has befriended Bush

Jonathan Steele — 2006-05-12T10:37:00Z

Barely six months in office and Germany's first woman chancellor is not only considerably more popular in her own country than when she was elected; she will also soon become Europe's elder statesperson. With Blair and Chirac in lame-duck decline, by the time Angela Merkel takes over the EU presidency in January she will command more authority than the leaders of the continent's other big states.

It is an amazing perspective for someone who looked close to breakdown on election night after throwing away a commanding poll lead and snatching victory by only four seats. Her party's male grandees, who always felt she was an upstart from the east, were grasping their daggers. But Merkel toughed it out, formed a coalition with the defeated Social Democrats and, with a 72% popularity rating, now enjoys the best score of any chancellor for half a century. (...)

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One-sided reporting that is delaying an end to the killing

Jonathan Steele — 2006-05-05T07:49:00Z

By the time you read this, there may be good news from Africa. A peace agreement could have been signed for Darfur, the place often compared with Rwanda as a cause for international shame because warnings of genocide went unheeded. If done by last night's midnight deadline, a deal will surprise most people, since with very few exceptions the world's press has ignored the negotiations that have been inching forward under African Union (AU) mediation in the Nigerian capital, Abuja.

I call it the Darfur Disconnect. One TV reporter after another does the standard tour into Sudan's western region, guided by rebel groups. Out comes footage of miserable refugees huddling in tents or shelters of sticks and plastic and recounting stories of brutal treatment by government-backed Janjaweed militias. Commentators thunder away at the need for sanctions against the regime in Khartoum and denounce western leaders for not authorising Nato to intervene. (...)

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The best help

Jonathan Steele — 2006-04-27T23:05:00Z

Having two American cabinet ministers in town is a unique honour even for Iraq's much-visited political class. On their trips to Baghdad this week Condoleezza Rice and Donald Rumsfeld probably wanted to check whether the country's new prime minister-designate is really as marvelous as the White House spin is making out. And neither trusts the other's judgement.

Al Maliki's main achievement so far has been to change his first name. Out went Jawad, the name he used in exile in Syria during the Saddam Hussein years. Back comes Nuri, his real one. Otherwise, al Maliki has done little, except make good-sounding noises. (...)

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US allies are behind the death squads and ethnic cleansing

Jonathan Steele — 2006-04-14T10:27:27Z

in Baghdad

Much ink, as well as indignation, is being spent on whether Iraq is on the verge of, in the midst of, or nowhere near civil war. Wherever you stand in this largely semantic debate, the one certainty is that the seedbed for the country's self-destruction is Iraq's plethora of militias. In the apt phrase of Zalmay Khalilzad, the US ambassador in Baghdad, they are the "infrastructure of civil war".

He is not the first US overlord in Iraq to spot the danger. Shortly before the formal transfer of sovereignty to Iraqis, America's then top official Paul Bremer ordered all militias to disband. Some members could join the new army. Others would have to look for civilian work. (...)

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Iraqis face a more brutal life with each passing month

Jonathan Steele — 2006-03-31T10:40:53Z

Terror and chaos reign, and the titanic challenge of ensuring political stability has barely begun to be addressed

in Baghdad

The pavements outside the American embassy here are peppered with odd concrete structures. They look like oversized kennels, about four feet high and six feet long, with a low wall at each end. Painted on them, large letters explain their purpose - duck and cover.

This is deep inside the well-guarded Green Zone, but if mortar rounds start to fall as you walk or drive by, these pygmy bunkers are where you and up to 10 people can squeeze in and crouch until the coast is clear. Like the iconic image of the last helicopter leaving the roof of the US embassy in Saigon in 1975 with terrified people struggling to clamber aboard, these ugly shelters may eventually achieve similar symbolic status.

For Iraqis in Baghdad, duck and cover is already a metaphor for daily life. On each of the seven visits I have made here since Saddam Hussein was toppled, security conditions have worsened. The downward slide since my previous trip for the December elections seems particularly steep. (...)

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Rival Shia groups unite against US after mosque raid

Jonathan Steele, Qais al-Bashir — 2006-03-29T00:50:00Z

· Baghdad officials end link with coalition in protest

· Minister claims 37 victims were tied up and killed

in Baghdad

Senior ministers from the three main Shia factions united yesterday to denounce an American raid on a Baghdad mosque complex in which at least 20 people died, opening the biggest rift between the US and Iraq's majority Shia community since the toppling of Saddam Hussein.

"At evening prayers, American soldiers accompanied by Iraqi troops raided the Mustafa mosque and killed 37 people," said Abd al-Karim al-Enzi, the security minister, who belongs to the Dawa party of the prime minister, Ibrahim al Jaafari. "They [the victims] were unarmed. They went in, tied up the people and shot them all. They did not leave any wounded." (...)

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Europe and the US decide the winner before the vote

Jonathan Steele — 2006-03-10T13:19:00Z

Belarus's government will be targeted if the west doesn't get the result it wants in this month's elections

Would you expect a European leader who has presided over a continual increase in real wages for several years, culminating in a 24% rise over the past 12 months, to be voted out of office? What if he has also cut VAT, brought down inflation, halved the number of people in poverty in the past seven years, and avoided social tensions by maintaining the fairest distribution of incomes of any country in the region? (...)

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Civil strife is not the only conflict for Iraq's Shias

Jonathan Steele — 2006-03-03T14:18:00Z

An internal struggle for power has put the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr back at centre stage - and the Americans won't like it

It was the moment feared by everyone in Iraq, whether foreigner or Iraqi. Our car was stuck in traffic in Najaf. Two men in white robes walked out in front of us and took pistols from their pockets. Opening the car's front doors, they forced the driver and translator to get out and squeeze into the back with me. A third gunman appeared and got in with us. Twenty yards away traffic police watched but did nothing. The congestion eased and our new driver inched slowly up the street. I was by the door but scotched a fleeting instinct to jump out. Bullets would surely follow.

Article continues

We reached a roundabout where the driver turned back towards the centre. I felt relief. Wouldn't a safe house to hold us hostage be out of town? Perhaps our captors were plain-clothes "detectives" from the Mahdi army, the militias loyal to the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, rather than a ransom gang. Maybe our activities had aroused suspicions. (...)

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Sudan urged to accept UN force as talks falter

Jonathan Steele — 2006-02-06T07:36:00Z

The conflict in Darfur is slipping back into major violence as peace talks aimed at ending the crisis in Sudan's western region plunge into deadlock and the UN security council starts to press for UN peace-keepers to replace the African Union.

Up to 70,000 people have fled in recent days from displacement camps where they had settled to escape earlier armed raids north of the city of Nyala. Several hundred more have crossed the border into Chad to seek refuge.

Baba Gana Kingibe, head of the Africa Union Mission in Sudan (Amis), blamed anti-government rebels for starting the latest cycle of violence in south Darfur. "The situation, especially in the past couple of weeks, is a continuing deterioration of security, mostly provoked by SLA [Sudan Liberation Army] elements," he said. (...)

[page 25 | International]

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Bush just has to face it: he is wrong and Chirac is right

Jonathan Steele — 2006-02-03T13:56:00Z

The crises over Hamas and Iran underline the collapse of the neocon mission and the end of a one-superpower world

George Bush's presidency still has three years to run, but this week's state of the union address had an unmistakably ebb-tide air. Its tone - "chastened, deferential, modest" in the words of the Los Angeles Times - suggested that the president felt the waves of power were flowing against him.

This is not the same as being a lame duck. The moment when second-term presidents start to face severe problems in getting legislation through Congress or convincing foreign allies to support controversial measures normally comes later in the cycle. The last midterm elections (in this case November 2006) are the usual peak before the White House incumbent's domestic authority declines. On foreign policy the slippage comes even later. It may be delayed as far as the final weeks of office, as Bill Clinton found when he tried to broker peace between Israel and the Palestinians in January 2001.

Nor does the change in Bush's demeanour this week result mainly from fading support among Americans for what will be remembered as the central decision of his presidency, the mistaken war on Iraq. His unprecedentedly low poll ratings certainly affected his mood on Tuesday night, and one sharp-eyed New York Times reporter noted that "he smiled seldom and only winked once". But the reason for Bush's gloom goes much deeper. (...)

[page 37 | Comment & Debate]

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British troops to stay in Afghanistan until at least 2010

Ewen MacAskill, Jonathan Steele — 2006-02-01T14:28:00Z

British and other foreign troops will be in Afghanistan until at least the end of 2010, according to a plan agreed at an international conference which began yesterday in London.

Representatives from almost 70 countries backed the plan to try to secure peace in Afghanistan, where attacks by the Taliban and other groups has been increasing, and to rebuild a country ruined by 27 years of intense conflict. About 1,600 people were killed in attacks last year.

John Reid, the British defence secretary, announced last week that the British contingent of 1,000 in Afghanistan is to rise to 5,700 this summer in what he described as the start of a three-year deployment. (...)

[page 18 | International]

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US urges Arab states to fund Palestinians after Hamas victory

Ewen MacAskill, Jonathan Steele, Nicholas Watt — 2006-01-31T14:26:00Z

· White House fears chaos if support is cut off

· Danger of cash vacuum poses dilemma for west

The US is urging Arab states to continue funding a Hamas-led Palestinian Authority, even though Washington is threatening to cut its own aid. Western diplomats said yesterday that George Bush's administration had already contacted Arab governments that give the Palestinian Authority support and requested them to continue their funding.

The US position behind the scenes contrasts with its public stance, in which President Bush has said he will cut aid to the Palestinian Authority unless Hamas renounces violence and stops demanding the destruction of Israel. (...)

[page 14 | International]

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The Palestinians' democratic choice must be respected

Jonathan Steele — 2006-01-27T14:22:00Z

The excuses given for refusing to deal with Hamas will not wash. This is a chance for Europe to have an independent role

Hamas's triumph in Wednesday's Palestinian elections is the best news from the Middle East for a long time. The poll was a more impressive display of democracy than any other in the region, outstripping last year's votes in Lebanon and Iraq both in turnout and the range of views that candidates represented.

Whereas in Iraq parties that opposed the occupation had to downplay or even obscure their views, Palestinian supporters of armed resistance to Israel's expansionist strategies were able to run openly. It is true that Hamas candidates did not make relations with Israel the centrepiece of their campaign. They focused on reform in the Palestinian Authority. But few voters were unaware of Hamas's uncompromising hostility to occupation and its record in fighting it. (...)

[page 35 | Comment & Debate]

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